New Hampshire’s leftward transfer for Home could possibly be undermined by its shift to proper within the legislature
The first Congressional District within the japanese a part of the state has been one of many swingiest seats within the nation for years, however just like the state as a complete, it was pleasant turf for Workforce Blue this time. The district bounced from a tiny 50-49 edge for Barack Obama in 2012 to a just-as-slender 48-47 Trump win 4 years in the past, however Biden carried it by a comparatively snug 52-46 margin.
The first has additionally been particularly risky in Home races, although Democrats have additionally achieved higher right here lately. Democrat Carol Shea-Porter flipped it in a 2006 shocker, however she misplaced her bid for a 3rd time period to Republican Frank Guinta in the course of the 2010 pink wave. Shea-Porter gained it again from Guinta in 2012 as Obama was carrying the district, however Guinta returned in 2014 to unseat her. Shea-Porter, nonetheless, got here again once more in 2016 to beat Guinta throughout their fourth matchup, regardless of Trump’s slim benefit.
That was the final time, although, that both Shea-Porter or Guinta appeared on the poll. Shea-Porter determined to not run once more in 2018, and fellow Democrat Chris Pappas decisively gained the competition to succeed her. Pappas, who’s the state’s first homosexual member of Congress, gained reelection in opposition to Republican Matt Mowers 51-46 this 12 months in a race that attracted no severe outdoors spending.
The 2nd District in western and northern New Hampshire, in the meantime, has historically leaned extra towards Democrats than the first. Biden carried the district 54-45, which was additionally a decisive shift to the left from Clinton’s 49-46 victory.
Republican incumbent Charlie Bass misplaced this seat within the 2006 blue wave in opposition to Democrat Paul Hodes, however he narrowly gained it again in 2010 in opposition to Democrat Annie Kuster after Hodes left to unsuccessfully run for the Senate. Kuster, although, defeated Bass of their 2012 rematch, and she or he decisively held on in the course of the 2014 GOP wave. Kuster prevailed 50-46 in 2016 in opposition to an underfunded Republican as Clinton was carrying her seat by the same margin, however she had no hassle in 2018 or 2020 in successive matchups with Republican Steve Negron.
Whereas Granite State Democrats carried out properly in federal elections this 12 months, although, the upcoming spherical of redistricting may value them a seat. Not solely was Republican Gov. Chris Sununu decisively reelected, the GOP additionally retook management of the state Home and Senate two years after dropping each chambers.
Republicans likewise managed the redistricting course of after the 2010 elections (due then to their legislative supermajorities), however satirically, their success that 12 months constrained their ambitions. Each Guinta and Bass had simply flipped seats, and since there was no means for Republican mapmakers to shore up one congressman with out hurting the opposite, they made solely slight changes to the district strains. Incumbent safety is not a priority for Republicans this time, although, so we may see extra aggressive modifications to a congressional map that has largely remained unaltered since 1881.
We’ll flip subsequent to Massachusetts, the place Republicans final gained a Home race in 1994. Biden took the Bay State 66-32, which was additionally a shift to the left from Clinton’s 61-33 win. Biden, like Clinton, additionally carried all 9 congressional districts. (Yow will discover a hyperlink to our map right here.)
The one seat the place Biden didn’t hit 60% of the vote was the ninth District on Cape Cod and the South Shore, however he nonetheless got here shut. Biden gained 58-40 right here, an enchancment over Clinton’s 53-42 efficiency, whereas Democratic Rep. Invoice Keating gained his sixth time period 62-36. Biden’s finest displaying within the state by far was in Rep. Ayanna Pressley’s seventh District, a various Boston-area constituency that he took 85-13.
The following spherical of redistricting is more likely to produce one other favorable map for Democrats. Whereas Republican Gov. Charlie Baker’s time period will final by the beginning of 2023, Democrats maintained supermajorities in each chambers of the legislature, permitting them to override the governor’s vetoes.